Who will celebrate with the trophy on Sunday? We think we know.(Heathcote/Getty Images)

We say that approach is all wrong. Why not go the other way, and just start eliminating players in the field until the winner eventually reveals himself? Why make your odds 1 in 156 of picking the winner when you can make them 155 in 156 of picking those who won't win?

Not to worry -- we've done it for you, selecting categories that eliminate candidates until this week's champion is revealed. Just call it the Process of Elimination in 16 sometimes easy -- and only occasionally serious -- steps.

1. No amateur has won the U.S. Open since John Goodman in 1933, so you can eliminate these players:

Michael Thompson, Jimmy Henderson, Jeff Wilson, Jordan Cox, Kevin Tway, Derek Fathauer, Kyle Stanley, Nick Taylor, Rickie Fowler and Michael Quagliano. Players eliminated: 10. Remaining field: 146.

2. No local qualifier has won the U.S. Open since Orville Moody in 1969, so you can eliminate these players:

Kevin Silva, Yohann Benson, Jeffrey Bors, Mike Gilmore, Charlie Beljan, Bob Gaus, David Hearn, Brian Bergstol, Hunter Haas, Chris Kirk, Ian Leggatt, D.A. Points, Jonathan Turcott, Brian Kortan, Jay Choi, Peter Tomasulo, Andrew Dresser, Fernando Figueroa, Chris Devlin, Sean English, John Ellis, Garrett Chaussard, Rob Rashell, Bobby Collins, Philippe Gasnier, Joey Lamielle, Scott Piercy, Kevin Streelman, Chris Stroud, Travis Bertoni and Casey Wittenberg. Players eliminated: 31. Remaining field: 115.

3. Just two players (Steve Jones in 1996, Michael Campbell in 2005) since Moody's win have gone through sectional qualifying prior to winning the U.S. Open, so let's eliminate these players:

Craig Parry, Artemio Murakami, Alastair Forsyth, Ross Fisher, Robert Dinwiddie, Phillip Archer, Ross McGowan, Johan Edfors, Thomas Levet, Jason Bohn, Matt Kuchar, D.J. Trahan, Carl Pettersson, Bart Bryant, Ben Crane, Joe Ogilvie, Robert Garrigus, Dean Wilson, Fredrik Jacobson, Jarrod Lyle, John Mallinger, Nick Watney, Davis Love III, Jesper Parnevik, Pat Perez, Justin Hicks, Rocco Mediate, Chad Campbell, Dustin Johnson, Steve Marino, Eric Axley, Jonathan Mills, Rich Beem, Mark O'Meara, Jason Gore, Michael Allen, Craig Barlow, John Merrick, Brett Quigley, Patrick Sheehan, D.J. Brigman, Scott Sterling, Michael Letzig, Brandt Jobe and Mathew Goggin. Players eliminated: 45. Remaining field: 70.

4. No Asian player has ever won the U.S. Open, so let's eliminate these players:

K.J. Choi, Ryuji Imada, Tori Taniguchi and Shingo Katayama. Players eliminated: 4. Remaining field: 66.

5. No European player has won the U.S. Open since Tony Jacklin in 1970, so let's eliminate these players:

The Irishman (Padraig Harrington), the Spaniards (Sergio Garcia, Miguel Angel Jimenez), the Swedes (Niclas Fasth, Henrik Stenson, Daniel Chopra, Robert Karlsson), the Englishmen (Nick Dougherty, Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Oliver Wilson, Ian Poulter), the Dane (Soren Hansen), the Scotsman (Colin Montgomerie) and the German (Martin Kaymer). Players eliminated: 17. Remaining field: 49.

6. No player with an apostrophe in his name has ever won the U.S. Open. Sorry, Sean O'Hair. (Remember, we eliminated Mark O'Meara in step 3). Players eliminated: 1. Remaining field: 48.

Many are picking Phil Mickelson to win, but he doesn't fit our criteria.(Kinnaird/Getty Images)

7. And since no left-handed golfer has ever won a U.S. Open, we'll eliminate one of the big favorites now, as well as his southpaw sidekicks:

Phil Mickelson, Mike Weir, Steve Flesch and Bubba Watson. Players eliminated: 4. Remaining field: 44.

8. No player has successfully defended his U.S. Open title since Curtis Strange in 1989. Think Angel Cabrera's the man to end that streak? We didn't think so. Players eliminated: 1. Remaining field: 43.

9. And let's go ahead and eliminate the remaining players appearing in their first U.S. Open. Richard Sterne and Andres Romero will be too wide-eyed to stay in contention. Players eliminated: 2. Remaining field: 41.

10. Now let's eliminate players who have never made a U.S. Open cut. These guys will just be glad to get to this weekend: Todd Hamilton, Brett Wetterich, Heath Slocum, Jeff Quinney. Players eliminated: 4. Remaining field: 37.

11. Going even farther, let's eliminate the players who have never finished in the top 10 in any of their previous U.S. Opens. Hey, even Cabrera was T-7 back in 2001 at Southern Hills. Of course, this doesn't explain the wins of Geoff Ogilvy and Michael Campbell prior to that, but at this point, we need to make some tough calls. As a result, this wipes out:

Woody Austin, Mark Calcavecchia, Zach Johnson, Ben Curtis, Brad Bryant, Hunter Mahan, Aaron Baddeley, Rory Sabbatini, Adam Scott, Brandt Snedeker, Charles Howell III, Boo Weekley, John Rollins, Trevor Immelman, Camilo Villegas, Jonathan Byrd, Anthony Kim, J.B. Holmes, Justin Leonard and Rod Pampling. Players eliminated: 20. Remaining field: 17.

12. Time to look at track records in majors. Let's eliminate the players who are major-less in their careers:

Scott Verplank, Jerry Kelly, Stephen Ames, Steve Stricker, Tim Clark, Stewart Cink, Robert Allenby and Stuart Appleby. Players eliminated: 8. Remaining field: 9.

13. And while we should always expect the unexpected, we don't expect any player ranked outside the top 300 in the Official World Golf Rankings to win. That eliminates two former U.S. Open champs: Lee Janzen (ranked 328) and Michael Campbell (339). Players eliminated: 2. Remaining field: 7.

Has Jim Furyk been consistent enough this season to win the U.S. Open?(Halleran/Getty Images)

14. How about the players who have been inconsistent at best this year? The FedExCup rankings are a good indicator of who has played well this year, so let's strike anybody not in the top 20 of FedExCup points.

Jim Furyk (21), Ernie Els (27), Retief Goosen (70) and David Toms (115). Players eliminated: 4. Remaining field: 3.

15. The oldest player to have won the U.S. Open was Hale Irwin in 1990 at the ripe age of 45 years, 15 days. So let's eliminate Vijay Singh, who is older now (by more than three months) than Irwin was back then. Players eliminated: 1. Remaining field: 2.

So two players are left: Tiger Woods and Geoff Ogilvy. Each with at least one U.S. Open win on his resume. Each currently in the top 10 of both the FedExCup points and Official World Golf Rankings.

Do we go with the easy choice, the guy who has 13 majors to his credit and who has won six times on TOUR at Torrey Pines? Or do we go with the guy who isn't coming off knee surgery and who's certainly capable of producing a big-time performance in a big-time event?

Experience at Torrey -- even if it's a different, more difficult Torrey than we're used to seeing -- is key. So the final elimination category is ...

16. Players who have at least finished in the top 60 in the PGA TOUR's annual stop in San Diego at the Buick Invitational.

Seeing as how Ogilvy has three missed cuts and a 67th-place finish in his four appearances at Torrey Pines, our choice is clear.

Tiger.

Did you really think it'd be anybody else?